AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Eases to near 114.00, but maintains bullish structure above 100-day SMA

The AUD/JPY cross loses traction to around 114.00 during the early European session on Friday. Fears of currency intervention from Japanese authorities provide some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the authorities are always ready to react suitably as needed on foreign exchange. 

On the other hand, a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might help limit the Aussie’s losses. RBA Governor Michele Bullock on Thursday emphasized that the central bank remains strictly focused on curbing inflation, following three interest rate hikes earlier this year that pushed the cash rate to 4.35%. Bullock further stated that inflation is too high, and the board will do what it considers necessary to achieve our mandate to deliver price stability and full employment.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a bullish near-term bias as it holds well above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the latest consolidation. Price is now pressing into the Bollinger band midline resistance at, with the upper band higher limiting topside extension for now. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 52 is broadly neutral, hinting that momentum has cooled but not reversed, allowing for further gains if resistance levels give way.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger band resistance at 114.80 and a daily close above this barrier would open the door toward the 115.00 psychological level. On the downside, initial intraday support is seen around the current price area near 114.00, ahead of a stronger Bollinger band floor at 113.20; a deeper pullback would expose the 100-day SMA at 111.55, where buyers are likely to defend the broader bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)