Gold price remains weak and fluctuates within a range in the short term; patiently wait for opportunities

　　Source: Xinhua Finance

　　Xinhua Finance, Beijing, June 5 — On Thursday (June 4), the international gold price opened at $4,434.92, reached a high of $4,515.43, a low of $4,423.31, and closed at $4,474.51. The intraday range was $92.12, up $40.96 or 0.92%, and the daily K-line showed a small bullish candlestick pattern.

　　Since encountering resistance at the $4,600 level last week, gold prices have continued to oscillate around $4,500 without breaking out effectively.

　　From a fundamental perspective, U.S. economic data shows marginal weakening signals in the labor market. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday indicated that for the week ending May 30, initial jobless claims rose to 225,000, exceeding both expectations and the previous figure; the four-week average also increased. Continuing jobless claims were slightly below expectations. Meanwhile, nonfarm productivity for Q1 was revised down to an annualized rate of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, the lowest rate since Q1 2025. Unit labor costs, after revision, rose by 1.8%, lower than both expectations and the initial value. Overall, U.S. economic data suggests a marginal cooling of the labor market combined with slower productivity growth, hinting at a weakening previously robust labor market. Amid persistently strong expectations of the Federal Reserve holding rates higher for longer, weakening data provided a temporary breather for gold, pushing prices up briefly.

　　Regarding geopolitical developments, although Lebanon and Israel agreed to a conditional ceasefire, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Commander Qaani stated that Israel must withdraw to positions held before the current round of conflict erupted. Overall, the complexity and uncertainty of U.S.-Iran negotiations have significantly increased, and earlier market optimism about a "memorandum of understanding nearing signing" is now being challenged, with geopolitical risk premiums possibly rising again—short-term bullish for gold prices.

　　To sum up, the market remains generally in consensus that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in the short term. Before the release of the May nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data, gold prices are likely to remain range-bound and volatile at low levels, making it difficult to develop a clear trend—patience is needed to await guidance from evening data releases.

　　Technically, this week, gold prices have been suppressed by the 5-week moving average at $4,554, but also supported below by the 40-week moving average at $4,440. Prices have continued in a narrow band, and although they briefly broke below this range, they quickly rebounded. Currently, there is still no clear one-way trend, and the choppy movement is expected to persist.

　　On the daily gold K-line chart, since the price retreated from the mid-May high of $4,773, it has been operating in a dynamically descending channel formed by the middle and lower Bollinger Bands (currently at $4,556–$4,370). This week, gold prices have remained in a state of minor fluctuations. Currently, the 5- and 10-day moving averages are clustered in the $4,483–$4,495 region, indicating that $4,500 remains the main resistance level of the day; support is still seen at $4,400 and nearby lower positions.

　　In conclusion, gold prices are in a weak, oscillating structure at present, and the core intraday range is temporarily maintained at $4,400–$4,500. Caution is advised for pullbacks if prices reach the upper boundary of the range, whereas sharp declines below the range could offer oversold rebound opportunities.

　　(Author: Research Team, Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center)

Editor: Zhu Henan