Swiss Franc: Low inflation keeps range intact versus US Dollar – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Swiss inflation remains comfortably within the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) price stability definition, with May Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to stay subdued. This allows the SNB to keep rates at 0.00% for an extended period, even as markets price some tightening. Haddad expects USD/CHF to remain confined to a tight 0.7760–0.7910 range in the near term.

SNB patience anchors Franc range

"Switzerland May CPI is due Thursday. Headline CPI is expected at 0.7% y/y vs. 0.6% in April while core CPI is expected at 0.3% y/y for a second straight month."

"The Swiss National Bank (SNB) forecasts headline CPI to average 0.5% y/y in Q2."

"Overall, inflation remains well within the range of price stability of less than 2% per annum. As such, the SNB can afford to keep rates at 0.00% for some time."

"The swaps curve price-in 76% odds of a 25bps rate hike to 0.25% in the next twelve months. USD/CHF will likely remain trapped within a tight 0.7760-0.7910 range in the near-term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)