Canadian Dollar: Rebalancing offers near-term relief – BNY

Geoff Yu at BNY highlights that Canadian Dollar (CAD) dynamics differ from the U.S., with equity-based rebalancing pointing toward CAD support as growth and allocation trends move opposite to the US Dollar. Fixed income steepening and poor CAD performance are seen amplifying CAD buying signals, suggesting some relief for the Canadian Dollar into month-end.

Canadian Dollar supported by flows

"Mathematically, our figures suggest that the unwinding of USD/CAD hedges – the discontinuation of forward USD selling against CAD on U.S. positions – played a big role in the dollar’s performance and some reversion is needed."

"The only other equity-based rebalancing signal is in the CAD, where growth and asset allocation trends are pointing in the opposite direction."

"In contrast, CAD buying is being amplified by similar steepening in bond markets on top of poor currency performance."

"USD and CAD have again generated the same net selling and buying signals, though the dollar’s signal is far weaker, as poor bond performance offset dollar purchases. In contrast, CAD buying is being amplified by similar steepening in bond markets on top of poor currency performance."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)