Copper prices surge, while both the US dollar and oil prices face pressure; renewed peace expectations reshape the logic of the metals market.

⑴ On Monday, copper prices rose, supported by expectations that the US and Iran might reach a peace agreement. The LME three-month copper contract increased by 0.90% to $13,635 per ton, and the main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed by 1.1% to 105,650 yuan per ton.⑵ Analysts at ANZ Bank noted that positive news regarding the conflict boosted market sentiment for industrial metals. Currently, base metals are squeezed by two forces: short-term demand is under pressure due to slowed economic growth, while support comes from disrupted supply in the Middle East.⑶ The market anticipates that an agreement between the US and Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to drop below $100 per barrel. The US Dollar Index fell by 0.2%, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for investors holding other currencies.⑷ Expectations for a peace agreement have eased concerns about inflation and the global economic slowdown. Copper, as a barometer of global economic health, has received support. Data from the LME on Friday shows that available copper inventories have dropped to 275,525 tons, a ten-week low.