Goldman Sachs: Current U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to decline

Strategist William Marshall wrote in his report that long-term forward yields are only about half a standard deviation above the bank's estimated fair value, whereas during the 2023 bond sell-off and the sharp decline triggered by the April 2025 tariff, this gap exceeded one standard deviation. He wrote: "If a valuation misalignment similar to that of 2023 occurs again, long-term forward yields will be about 75 basis points higher than they are now."