JPMorgan Asset Management expects oil prices to fall in the second half of the year and maintains its overweight position in equities.

Glonghui, May 12th｜JPMorgan Asset Management stated on Tuesday that it expects Brent crude oil prices to return to more normal levels in the third and fourth quarters. The global economy should be able to withstand the energy shock and achieve robust growth, laying the foundation for maintaining a "risk-on" stance (including an overweight in equities) during its investment period over the next 12-18 months. The bank's Chief Portfolio Manager Sheng Nan pointed out in a commentary that different regions of the global economy have varying vulnerabilities to rising energy prices. The U.S. economy will shift from an above-trend growth rate to a rate that is closer to or slightly above trend, with high oil prices having only limited influence on core inflation. Both consumers and businesses will view the surge in energy prices as a temporary phenomenon, which should help avoid a broader economic slowdown. In terms of investment strategy, she stated that a moderate "risk-on" approach will be maintained, including an overweight in equities, and reiterated a preference for the technology and communication services sectors. In fixed income, as the yield curve steepens, there is a preference for shorter duration; credit bond allocation remains neutral, reflecting an asymmetric distribution of returns.