Goldman Sachs Delays Fed Rate Cut Expectations to December 2026 and March 2027

Cointime2026/05/09 06:55

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On May 9, Goldman Sachs announced that due to stronger-than-expected inflation resilience, the bank has postponed its expectations for the Federal Reserve's next two rate cuts by a quarter, now forecasting them for December 2026 and March 2027. In a report on May 8, Goldman Sachs' U.S. economists stated that the transmission effects of energy costs could keep the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate around 3% for the year, rather than the Fed's target of 2%, thereby delaying the conditions necessary for policy easing.

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Goldman Sachs Volatility Panic Index surged to 9.57, approaching its maximum value, with the largest single-day increase ranking third in history, and the combined two-day volatility setting a new record. Historical data shows that after this index has exceeded the 9.5 threshold 15 times, the S&P 500 has seen an average three-month gain of 4.6% with a success rate of 80%. However, Goldman Sachs traders warn that forced liquidations have not yet fully cleared, and the market is still searching for a bottom, but opportunities on the other side are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

华尔街见闻•2026/11/07 07:31