HSBC: The US Treasury is expected to temporarily maintain its auction size, but may adjust its guidance

However, in the past two quarterly refinancing announcements, the U.S. Treasury noted that it is assessing the possibility of "potential future increases in supply." HSBC continues to expect that such increments will begin in November 2026. Therefore, the May 6 refinancing announcement for May may signal a shift in guidance, abandoning the current wording that auction sizes will "at least remain unchanged for the next several quarters." HSBC expects the U.S. Treasury to gradually increase supply starting in November, with the increments concentrated on the front end and the "belly" of the curve.