First prediction market ETFs could launch next week, Bloomberg analyst says

The first lineup of prediction market exchange-traded funds may hit the U.S. next week, according to Bloomberg ETF Analyst James Seyffart.

On Tuesday, New York-based issuer Roundhill filed a post-effective amendment under Rule 485(b) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, setting a new effective date for its previously filed registration statement.

"Looks like we are going to see prediction markets ETFs launch next week," Seyffart said.

The filing states that Roundhill's six prediction market funds will be given a new effective date of May 5. The six ETFs are the RPM Democratic President ETF, RPM Republican President ETF, RPM Democratic Senate ETF, RPM Republican Senate ETF, RPM Democratic House ETF, and RPM Republican House ETF.

What are they?

According to Roundhill's February filing, the funds would allow investors to speculate on upcoming U.S. election outcomes through event contracts. Each fund is designed to deliver capital appreciation if the targeted party wins, and a near-total loss if it loses.

The President ETFs focus on the 2028 presidential election winner, while the Senate and House ETFs target the November 2026 midterm elections.

GraniteShares and major crypto ETF issuer Bitwise submitted similar filings in February, which Seyffart expects to launch around the same time. Seyffart previously said the move signaled a growing trend toward the "financialization and ETF-ization of everything," adding that it is unlikely to be the last filing of its kind.

"Potentially groundbreaking," Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas commented at the time of Roundhill's filing. "If this goes through, wow, opens up huge door to all kinds of stuff."

Prediction markets and crypto

The U.S. issuers' move to offer event contracts in traditional ETF wrappers follows the success of prediction market platforms, namely Polymarket and Kalshi. In March, the two platforms reported a combined $24.3 billion in volume.

Cryptocurrencies play a crucial role on Polymarket, which operates on the Polygon blockchain using USDC-based collateral, including its own Polymarket USD token. The fast, low-cost, and transparent nature of onchain settlement on Polymarket has helped drive its growth in recent years, with political events accounting for a substantial share of activity.

While not crypto-native, Kalshi was recently reported to be planning the launch of crypto perpetual futures trading.