Gold prices show a weak pattern, short-term focus on the $4,600 support

　　Source: Xinhua Finance

　　On Thursday (April 23), international gold prices fluctuated and closed down by $34.79, a decrease of 0.73%, with the daily candlestick showing a small bearish candle with a lower shadow. Overall, after repeatedly encountering resistance and declining near $4,853, gold prices began to show weakness. Currently, after oscillating around the key $4,700 level, gold has broken through this support and is temporarily maintaining a weak and volatile pattern, with the possibility of further testing the $4,600 mark.

　　From a fundamental perspective, Trump announced on the 21st the extension of the ceasefire with Iran but continued the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the U.S. Navy's nuclear-powered aircraft carrier "Bush" is heading to the Middle East. Although the current ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is being maintained, the timing of a new round of negotiations is still unclear. Due to a loss of trust in the sincerity of the U.S. for negotiations, Iran has formulated targeted counterattack plans for potential military actions from the U.S. and its allies. Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil remains strong and has once again risen above $100 per barrel. High oil prices have raised inflation expectations, leading the Federal Reserve to potentially further tighten its monetary policy, which continues to put downward pressure on overall gold trends.

　　In terms of economic data, both the number of initial and continuing U.S. jobless claims for the week ending April 18 were higher than previous figures and market expectations, causing the U.S. dollar to retreat and gold prices to briefly surge. However, the latest data shows only a 34.4% chance of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by December, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged in June is 96.4%. Thus, in the short term, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains unchanged.

　　In summary, with a new round of U.S.-Iran negotiations still far off and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, oil prices are receiving significant support. During this process, gold continues to act as a liquid asset but still faces selling pressure, leading the weak trend to persist.

　　Technically, the 50% retracement level of the $5,600-$4,100 gold price range stands at $4,853. Since the start of this month, gold prices have challenged this level multiple times without making a decisive breakthrough. After nearly a week of trading, the focus of international gold prices has gradually shifted downwards, losing the $4,700 mark. Although prices are temporarily hovering around $4,660 this week, overall momentum remains weak, with further declines possible.

　　For short-term indicators, the 10-day moving average is critical for gold’s price trend. After falling below the 10-day moving average this week, the trend has shifted from a weak rebound to a corrective phase. Currently, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a death cross, with the 10-day MA presenting strong resistance around $4,765. The 5-day MA and the Bollinger middle band, located around $4,735-$4,720, form the first intraday resistance. Preliminary judgment suggests that gold is in the initial phase of adjustment, with the low area near $4,660-$4,640 still providing support during pullbacks. If gold loses support at $4,600, it could quickly test the $4,400 level.

　　In conclusion, as noted recently, after losing support at the short-term 10-day moving average, gold's trend is becoming more neutral to slightly bearish, with corrective pullbacks as the main theme. For now, expect narrow fluctuations in the $4,600-$4,735 range, with the core range to watch being $4,640-$4,735.

　　(The author is a member of the research team at the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center.)

　　Editor: Wu Zhengsi

Responsible Editor: Zhu Henan