Goldman Sachs: Most Gulf oil production will recover within months after the Strait reopens

Golden Ten Data reported on April 24 that Goldman Sachs stated that the sharply reduced Gulf oil production due to the Iran conflict could mostly recover soon after the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but it may also require a longer period. The firm estimates that approximately 14.5 million barrels per day of crude oil production was shut in across the Gulf region in April—about 57% of pre-war supply—mainly due to precautionary shutdowns and inventory management rather than physical damage to oilfields. Goldman Sachs notes that prospects for recovery vary by country: Iran and Iraq face greater risks due to reservoir characteristics, infrastructure challenges, and sanctions, while Saudi Arabia may be able to boost production more rapidly. According to the average forecast from external agencies cited by Goldman Sachs, Gulf oil-producing countries could restore about 70% of the halted output within three months, and around 88% within six months. However, the firm also warns that prolonged shutdowns increase the risk of lasting damage to supply.