1:00 AM, accelerated plunge, the entire world shakes violently

Source: Wall Street Intelligence Circle

The market has closed, and there's a sense of violent turbulence in global markets:

- The rally in the US stock market came to an abrupt halt, revealing a "post-boom exhaustion." The Dow Jones Index fell by 0.36%, the S&P 500 Index dropped by 0.41%, and the Nasdaq Index declined by 0.89%.

- Gold and US Treasuries fell, with the gold price dropping below $4,800, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 4.30%.

- Crude oil and the US dollar started rising again, with US crude oil topping $95.

First, the turning point occurred after 1:00 a.m. (GMT+8) on Friday, as overwhelming news swept the market. In the past, the market suffered from "selective blindness," only focusing on what it wanted to see. Now, there's a shift towards: Overheated, crowded, nerve-wracked sectors, with sentiment that could be disrupted at any moment by breaking news.

The market's reaction is very interesting; it's become "headline-driven trading":

If Israel might strike, indices plunge;

If Iran activates air defense, more declines;

If Israel denies it, a rebound;

If Iran says it's just a drill, a V-shaped recovery.

Second, oil prices above $95, yields over 4.30%, and a declining US stock market—a combination that has started to worry the markets. Today's focus is whether the S&P 500 can hold 7046 points, which is both yesterday's low and where last Friday's gap opens. Holding or breaking this level has completely different implications.

Third, the drop in US stocks was moderate, but more importantly, "Thursday saw a decline," which to some extent shook market confidence, making investors reluctant to hold positions over Thursday. The Friday close is even more critical. Recently, the market has developed the habit of "buying on the dip immediately." If the market closes positive, the current status can be sustained. But if it falls, sentiment will shift from "euphoria" to "sensitivity."

The biggest risk is that, for the first time, people have suddenly realized that "maybe this time, if prices fall, there won't be buyers right away."