Pre-ceasefire "God Tier Prediction"? $430 million Precise Bet on Oil Price Drop Raises Insider Trading Suspicions

BlockBeats News, April 22, U.S. President Trump announced a 15-minute extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, triggering up to a $430 million bearish bet on crude oil in the market and raising strong suspicions of potential insider trading.

Data shows that this is the third time this month and the fourth time since the outbreak of the conflict that a "well-timed" large transaction has occurred before the announcement of a major Middle East situation:

On March 23, about 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay in striking Iranian power facilities, a bet of around $500 million was placed on a drop in oil prices;
Several hours before the ceasefire agreement was announced on April 7, a $950 million short position was established;
Approximately 20 minutes before Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz on April 17, a $760 million bet was placed on a fall in oil prices;

The cumulative scale of similar trades in April has reached about $2.1 billion. The repeated occurrence of "well-timed trades before events" has led the market to begin paying attention to the risks of information leakage and regulatory arbitrage. Analysts point out that in the context of highly sensitive geopolitics, if such trading behavior involves undisclosed information flow or poses a serious impact on market fairness.