Has the operating logic of the US dollar, crude oil, and gold changed under the Middle East situation?

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新浪财经2026/04/21 23:49

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By:新浪财经

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Has the operating logic of the US dollar, crude oil, and gold changed under the Middle East situation? image 0

Source: Allianz Fund

Recent developments in the Middle East have disrupted the market logic of the US dollar, crude oil, and gold, highlighting the importance of tactical flexibility and reminding investors to build resilient portfolios rather than relying solely on historical correlations for allocation.

Key Points

　　Currently, crude oil’s trading logic is completely dominated by geopolitical supply risks; the US dollar has regained its short-term safe haven status; gold now displays more tactical asset characteristics.

　　As volatility increases across currencies, commodities, and equities, short-term price trends are driven not only by fundamentals but also by capital flows and portfolio positioning.

　　We believe investors should look beyond current market volatility and focus on mid-term drivers: maintain the view that the US dollar is set to weaken in the medium to long term, and see gold’s mid-term outlook as still shaped by structural changes.

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has triggered sharp turbulence in global markets, altering the interrelationship of these three core global macro assets: the US dollar, crude oil, and gold.

Traditionally, the US dollar and oil prices are negatively correlated—when the dollar strengthens, oil prices typically fall, and vice versa. However, since the start of this round of Middle East conflict, both have strengthened simultaneously. This suggests that during periods of turmoil, historical asset correlations may destabilize or even reverse, further highlighting

the necessity for investors

to build resilient portfolios and avoid overreliance on historical patterns

　　Meanwhile, the historic negative correlation between the US dollar and gold has been reinforced, with the dollar rising as gold declines—a stark reversal from the pre-conflict trend of a weakening dollar and strengthening gold. What are the underlying drivers of this shift?

Currently,

crude oil

is trading entirely on geopolitical supply risks. In March, oil prices surged about 60%, mainly due to significant supply threats from disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and interruptions in Middle Eastern energy production. Rising oil prices have stoked global inflation, further boosting upward pressure on energy prices.

The US dollar

has briefly regained its status as a safe haven asset. At the same time, the dollar is also benefiting from higher oil prices: the US has become a major net exporter of crude oil, and higher energy prices improve America’s trade terms and tighten global financial conditions, providing short-term support for the dollar. Moreover, US interest rates are markedly higher than those of other major economies, which also fuels carry trades.

Gold

as a politically neutral asset and traditional safe haven, is now being tested. In the short term, gold is behaving more like a tactical asset, extremely sensitive to liquidity, yields, and changes in positioning, rather than directly reflecting geopolitical risks. During periods of abnormal asset correlation, gold has dropped in tandem with stocks and bonds—other classic safe havens. Gold prices have remained soft, in part reflecting investors cashing out from previous rallies to build up cash reserves or to add margin to equity positions; some global central banks may also have offloaded significant amounts of gold. Meanwhile, markets expect central banks worldwide may have to hike rates to offset inflation pressure from higher oil prices, and as rates rise, higher bond yields make fixed income assets relatively more attractive, diverting some demand from gold.

Insights for investment from shifting asset logic

Persistent uncertainty in the Middle East

Maintain tactical flexibility

We continue to hold a positive view on crude oil and other commodities,

with elevated geopolitical risk premiums making them effective hedges within portfolios. How long oil prices stay high will depend on the duration of supply disruptions.

We maintain our call for a weaker US dollar in the medium-to-long term, given US fiscal conditions and the gradual trend toward global de-dollarization. While the short-term logic supports the dollar, its sustainability remains to be seen.

Therefore, even if the strategic direction is clear, FX allocations still require tactical flexibility.

For example, for non-US investors, holding US dollar assets has hedge value in the current environment, as the European economy appears more vulnerable to crisis shocks, putting downward pressure on the euro.

Gold

Mid-term outlook unchanged

　　Although gold prices have eased short term, we believe the mid-term trend is still driven by structural factors including global central bank buying, fiscal uncertainty, diversification of the international monetary system, and more traditional factors such as the US dollar, real yield moves, and retail demand.

　　However, in the short run, investors should closely monitor retail gold ETF flows and technical signals. Should the gold price correct further, attractive re-entry points may emerge.

Heightened volatility:

A good opportunity to reassess hedging strategies

　　Given heightened volatility across currencies, commodities, and equities, short-term price movements are becoming increasingly driven by fund flows and portfolio adjustments rather than fundamentals.

　　Such volatility is affecting portfolio hedging strategies. For most multi-asset portfolios, protective options are now in-the-money due to recent market action. As uncertainty remains high but risk premiums have been noticeably repriced, it is necessary to reevaluate the cost and benefit of maintaining hedges at current levels.

In summary, recent market volatility reminds us that historical asset relationships are not set in stone. Geopolitical shocks and deep structural changes in the global economy are reshaping the pricing logic of gold, crude oil, and the US dollar.

For investors, the challenge goes beyond identifying ever-shifting market dynamics; it lies in staying flexible enough to respond—balancing long-term conviction with short-term tactical discipline.

　　This article is reproduced from Allianz Global Investors’ “The US dollar, oil and gold: changing dynamics?” and was translated by Allianz Fund. The ‘we’ in this article refers to Allianz Global Investors.

Editor: Zhu Henan

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Has the operating logic of the US dollar, crude oil, and gold changed under the Middle East situation?

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