CITIC Securities: If thermal coal price surpasses 800 yuan, coal stocks may rebound rapidly

```htmlGolden Ten Data reported on April 20 that Du Cong, chief coal analyst at Zhongtai Securities, published a research report addressing market concerns about a "coal price collapse due to the reopening of the strait." Data shows that by mid-April, the thermal coal market price had reached 769 yuan/ton, nearing the key 800 yuan mark, with a firm weekly increase of 8 yuan. Coking coal saw a weekly rise of 70 yuan/ton, demonstrating strong resilience in non-electricity demand. On the demand side, there is a dual resonance of electricity and non-electricity sectors: out-of-season coal consumption for power generation increased by 7% year-on-year, daily steel hot metal production averaged 2.45 million tons, and weekly coal consumption for coal chemicals reached 7.5 million tons (compared to 7 million tons last year); moreover, declines in hydropower and wind/solar output have strengthened support for thermal power. In terms of inventory, power plant stocks decreased by 0.6% year-on-year (a three-year low), while port and coking coal inventories plunged by 15.8% year-on-year, with the entire supply chain's destocking confirming a shift towards a seller's market.```