AI’s Bottomless Money Pit? Goldman Sachs Reveals Break-even Path: Autonomous Driving to Ignite Trillion-Dollar Profit Pool

Where will the money invested in AI generate returns? Goldman Sachs offers a concrete answer: autonomous driving.

Currently, tech giants have invested nearly $700 billion in AI data centers, about ten times the 2020 level. Whether this investment can generate sufficient returns is one of Wall Street's core concerns.

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney recently released a new report focusing on "AI's Impact on Profit Pools," with a key assessment of how much incremental profit AI-powered transportation can create. The report suggests that the commercialization of autonomous driving is accelerating and is a significant source of AI investment returns.

Robotaxi: Forecast Nearly Tripled Within a Year

About a year ago (June 2025), Delaney issued an initial forecast. After this update, the figures have seen a dramatic increase.

U.S. robotaxi market forecast:

• 2030: Upgraded from $700 million to $1.9 billion

• 2035: Further rising to $4.8 billion

Globally, Delaney expects the robotaxi market to reach $415 billion by 2035, with vertically integrated operators possibly achieving a gross profit margin of 30% to 50%, corresponding to a gross profit of around $150 billion.

The core logic driving this forecast increase is that deployment of autonomous vehicles in the U.S., China, and Europe is rapidly expanding. Delaney points out, "These deployments rely both on in-house technologies from enterprises such as Waymo, Tesla, and Pony.ai, as well as commercial Physical AI tools offered by companies like Nvidia (e.g., the Alpamayo platform)."

Market demand signals have already appeared. Data show that Waymo’s market share in San Francisco reached 30% after 20 months of official commercial operations. Meanwhile, Google search data also indicates rising consumer interest in robotaxis.

Autonomous Trucks: An Even Bigger Profit Pool

Beyond robotaxi, Delaney believes autonomous trucks will be another heavyweight profit source.

Forecast data:

• U.S. Class 8 autonomous truck market: $1.6 billion in 2030, $10.5 billion in 2035

• Global market: About $560 billion in 2035

• Global gross profit: Over $135 billion in 2035, with a cumulative total of roughly $300 billion over the next ten years

On the cost side, improvements are happening rapidly as well. Delaney expects the cost per mile for autonomous trucks to drop significantly by the end of this decade and stabilize at around $2 per mile by the middle of the next decade.

"Overall, we expect that with a better cost structure and larger fleets, the global gross profit pool for autonomous trucks will grow from almost zero in 2025 to about $135 billion in 2035," Delaney wrote in the report.

Several North American companies have already entered the market, including Aurora, Kodiak, Waabi, and Plus, all planning to rapidly expand their fleets over the next few years.

Impact: $440 Billion Existing Market Faces Disruption

The expansion of autonomous driving not only adds to new markets but also means substitution for existing industries.

Quoting data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delaney estimates the scale of the U.S. economy potentially impacted is about $440 billion, covering:

• Wage income for taxi, private hire, shuttle, and freight drivers

• Order income allocated to drivers on ride-hailing platforms

• A possible decline in car sales if personal travel demand is fully met by autonomous ride-hailing services

In the report, Delaney directly named the ride-hailing industry: "Our baseline forecast is that by 2030, autonomous driving will erode 5% of total ride-hailing orders in the U.S. and Canada; under a pessimistic scenario, this proportion rises to 16%."

Waymo’s 30% market share in San Francisco has already become a concrete reference.

Delaney summarizes that the large-scale emergence of autonomous vehicles on roads in the U.S. and other developed countries is an irreversible trend. Fleets are already in operation, and true-scale deployment will begin next year.