EUR/USD holds above 1.1770, awaiting the outcome of US-Iran peace talks
The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trading at 1.1782 at the time of writing. The pair is on track to its third consecutive weekly rally, as investors’ optimism about the resolution of Iran’s war has propelled the pair to pre-war levels from early March lows.
Traders keep cutting back holdings of the safe-haven US Dollar, as the bombing in the Middle East stops, at least temporarily. Israel announced on Thursday a ten-day ceasefire in Lebanon, and US President Donald Trump confirmed that Washington and Tehran will resume peace talks this weekend.
Nevertheless, the nuclear issue seems to be a key hurdle for a steady peace deal. A news report by Reuters, citing Iranian sources, affirms that US and Iranian negotiators have scaled back their ambitions for this weekend’s talks and are now seeking a temporary memorandum to prevent a return to conflict.
Beyond that, closure of the Strait of Hormuz is another point of friction and maintains Oil prices more than 30% above pre-war levels. The Eurozone is strongly dependent on Crude imports; the energy shock triggered by the war in the Middle East has boosted inflationary levels in the region, which, coupled with weakening economic activity, is raising concerns about stagflation. If these fears increase, the Euro is likely to suffer.
Technical Analysis: Consolidating gains below 1.1825
EUR/USD maintains the near-term bullish bias intact after rallying nearly 2.5% over the last three weeks, although technical indicators on 4-hour chart are showing signs of weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased back to levels right above the key 50 line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative, suggesting upside momentum is cooling but not yet reversing decisively.
Support at Thursday's lows around the 1.1770 area is holding bears for now, and closing the path towards the previous tops, between 1.1720 and 1.1740, and the 1.1650 support area (near April 8, 12 lows). A confirmation below that level would negate the bullish structure.
On the upside, immediate resistance remains at the late February highs around 1.1825. Further up, the February 10 and 11 highs, near 1.1930, are likely to be targeted.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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