Everbright Futures 0417 Gold Commentary: Negotiation Window Continues, Gold Price Recovery Unchanged

Overnight, COMEX gold traded within a narrow range, showing a brief period of consolidation after a continuous rebound.

On the geopolitical front, multiple signals have emerged. U.S. President Trump recently stated that the next round of direct talks between the U.S. and Iran may take place this weekend in Pakistan, adding that it is possible to extend the current two-week ceasefire agreement if necessary. He also revealed that Iran has agreed not to possess nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, Lebanon and Israel announced a 10-day ceasefire, which adds a new element of de-escalation to the Middle Eastern situation. However, on the same day, the United States announced the launch of "Operation Economic Fury," further expanding the blockade on Iranian shipping materials to include crude oil, refined oil, steel, aluminum, and more, noting that tens of thousands of troops would participate in port blockades. Iran responded strongly, denouncing the move as “economic terrorism.”

Market expectations continue to lean towards an optimistic outlook, anticipating that regional conflicts will ultimately be resolved through negotiations. Risk appetite is overall moving in a favorable direction, but shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains practically obstructed. Concerns about disrupted energy supplies persist, fueling inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve’s expectation of rate cuts within the year remains at a low level, limiting the upside momentum of gold prices. After the previous rapid recovery, the market seems hesitant about whether gold prices will continue to rise, and short-term disagreements have led to volatile price swings.

In addition, it’s noteworthy that the Federal Reserve chairman transition is facing a major test. Powell’s term will end on May 15. Whether Trump’s nominee as successor can be confirmed by the Senate in time presents significant uncertainty. Powell insists on continuing to fulfill his role as “acting chairman” until the successor is confirmed, resulting in a standoff between both sides. This may become the most underestimated risk variable in the near term.

In the short term, market disagreement is causing repeated gold price fluctuations. Nevertheless, as long as the overall U.S.-Iran tensions move towards further easing, the gold price recovery trend should remain unchanged. Traders are advised to keep an eye on this weekend’s negotiation progress, developments in navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and to manage positions carefully to guard against short-term volatility triggered by renewed geopolitical risks.

Source: Everbright Futures Research Institute

Written by: Yao Tao

Professional Qualification: F3082336

Trading Consultant Qualification: Z0018553

Editor: Zhu Henan