Economists: Rising inflation expectations push up Japan's neutral interest rate

金十2026/04/16 06:52

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Golden Ten Data reported on April 16 that Hideo Kumano, economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, stated that as the Middle East conflict drives up inflation expectations, Japan’s nominal neutral interest rate (actual neutral rate plus expected inflation rate) could be 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points higher than previously thought. In a research report, he indicated that the Bank of Japan should raise its nominal neutral rate target accordingly. He added: "Failing to take these environmental changes into account and signaling a prolonged pause in rate hikes could accelerate yen depreciation." The next Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting is scheduled for April 27-28.

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Over time, action needs to be taken to ensure that inflation falls back to the 2% target in a timely and sustained manner. Williams' statement is more explicit than before; previously, he indicated his support for the Federal Reserve to first gather information before determining its policy stance, but this speech further supplements with a clear signal that "further action is necessary."

华尔街见闻•2026/11/13 06:41