Harvard Professor Rogoff: The US dollar is overvalued by at least 20%, expectations for the end of the Iran war are "too naive"

Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff stated that the overvaluation of the US dollar signals long-term correction risks. He also warned that investors may overestimate the likelihood of the Iran war being resolved in the short term. In an interview, Rogoff said: "The US dollar may still be overvalued by at least 20%. Every time it has reached this level of overvaluation in the past, it tended to correct within five or six years. Frankly, this is the case with any major currency." Rogoff described this war as "a massive stagflation shock," intensifying the impact of tariffs that are still affecting the system. He stated that, from a medium-term perspective, these pressures are more likely to push interest rates higher rather than lower. Rogoff added that the market's belief that the Iran conflict has been resolved is "naive." "More will happen. But once again, the market assumes it's fine and everything will be okay."