Gold at higher levels may attract new selling, the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart remains key

1. Against the backdrop of a decent rebound in the New York market on Monday, if the gold price can stabilize above the 50% retracement level of 4,760 from the March downtrend, it could become an important trigger signal for bulls. However, gold is still limited below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,864.58, keeping the overall tone moderately bearish.2. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 57, slightly leaning towards a neutral-to-bullish stance, while the MACD histogram has contracted toward the zero axis. This indicates that downward pressure is easing, but a convincing reversal signal has yet to emerge. Therefore, any subsequent upward move may first encounter initial resistance near the 200-period SMA at $4,865, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,915. A successful breakout above this level would open the way to cycle highs at $5,133 and $5,419.3. On the downside, immediate support lies near the 50% retracement at $4,759, with further support at the 38.2% retracement at $4,604 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,411. If these Fibonacci support levels are breached, it would expose a broader structural bottom, pointing towards $4,100.