Oil: Supply shock risks and inflation focus – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered’s Bader Al Sarraf highlights that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February, driving a sharp drop in Gulf crude exports and taking a large volume of production offline. He notes that physical energy markets have repriced higher and that the disruption is feeding through into broader commodity and inflation dynamics.

Hormuz closure drives energy repricing

"The Strait of Hormuz has been de-facto closed since late February, with tanker transit calls slumping to near-zero across every cargo category."

"Crude oil exports across the Gulf fell by c.43% between February and March, with c.11mb/d of production effectively offline."

"Physical energy markets have repriced sharply higher, and the disruption is now transmitting beyond energy to food prices."

"Cross-asset correlations confirm markets are still pricing an inflation shock rather than a growth shock – hard data is yet to reflect any growth impacts."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)