3 smart money accounts each put in $10,800 believing that the oil price will not surpass $130 per barrel before July.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts have placed a $10,800 bet on "Will the price of crude oil (CL) surpass $130 per barrel before July," with the current probability of "Yes" at 43%.

Among these 3 accounts, Frank0951 has a 60% win rate in the oil category, with a total profit of $66,000; 0x3b7ed124 has a 100% win rate in the commodities category, with a total profit of $3,000; 0x8e77537e has a 100% win rate in the oil category, with a total profit of $7,000.

On the 13th, after the U.S. announced preparations to blockade Iranian-related shipping, the price of crude oil briefly rose to $104.95 per barrel. Some analysts believe that with the conflict unresolved, the oil price may continue to experience high volatility. Meanwhile, global refineries and crude oil traders are intensifying their efforts to secure immediate delivery of spot crude oil, leading to increased tension in the spot market supply.

The Guardian points out that the primary objective of the U.S. in this move is more to pressure Iran rather than to prepare for a larger-scale direct military strike. This is because implementing a comprehensive and tight maritime blockade would not only require ongoing deployment of naval forces, monitoring of sea routes, and vessel identification but also entail a higher risk of military escalation.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x40471b34671887546013ceb58740625c2efe7293;
0x3b7ed1242417f4b8f6992b5dd53aa9415a2c23eb;
0x8e77537e059837d3c2ca5b4efe75e74e9498c4f3.