"1011 Insider Whale" agent: The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may not end the conflict, but rather escalate the risk

According to Odaily, “1011 Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin analyzed that the United States' announcement of a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is one of the "most tactically astute" moves in the current conflict, but it is unlikely to achieve the goal of ending the war. This strategy offers two main short-term advantages: first, it directly weakens Iran’s crude oil export revenue by approximately 1.7 million barrels per day; second, compared to occupying key facilities (such as Kharg Island), a maritime blockade is less costly and the risks are more manageable. However, the effectiveness of this strategy faces several challenges, such as the current blockade mainly targeting Iranian ports rather than a complete closure of the Strait, third-party transfer routes still exist, and it also weakens the United States’ long-term international image of maintaining “freedom of navigation,” which could have a profound impact on global maritime order.

Garrett Jin concluded that while the blockade measures reshape the initiative in the short term, it is unlikely to force Iran to make concessions and could instead reduce diplomatic space and prolong the conflict. The market has already priced in the effects of the blockade itself, but has not yet fully reflected potential escalation paths.