Everbright Futures 0413 Gold Commentary: Inflation Divergence and Geopolitical Deadlock Coexist, Gold Awaits Clear Direction

　　Last Friday, following the release of U.S. March inflation data, the reaction in the precious metals market was relatively muted. The data showed that March CPI in the U.S. surged year-on-year to 3.3%, hitting a new high in nearly a year. The month-on-month increase reached 0.9%, the largest single-month gain since June 2022. However, core CPI was only up 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both below market expectations. This structure indicates that the rise in oil prices has had a clear impact on overall inflation but has not yet significantly transmitted to core inflation. Underlying inflation, excluding energy, remains resilient and relatively controllable.

　　However, the University of Michigan survey released the same day sent a completely different signal. In April, the one-year inflation expectation of consumers surged from the previous value of 3.8% to 4.8%, the largest monthly increase in a year. The growing fear among consumers about future inflation stands in sharp contrast to the relatively tame current data, reflecting a rapidly intensifying public perception of price pressures driven by geopolitical conflicts.

　　Over the weekend, the market’s main concern was the outcome of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which ultimately ended in failure. Both sides remain far apart on key issues, including control over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s uranium enrichment program, and the unfreezing of overseas assets, with little chance of resolving these in the short term. In the near term, the direction of these U.S.-Iran talks is the biggest uncertainty. Should substantial progress be made and the Strait of Hormuz partially reopen to navigation, oil prices are likely to drop further and, with risk appetite returning, gold is expected to stay strong. Conversely, if negotiations collapse or a ceasefire agreement is torn up, risk-off sentiment will quickly reverse, sending prices higher and possibly suppressing gold again. Until market direction becomes clearer, traders are advised to strictly control their positions, remain flexible, and wait for more definite signals before acting.

　　Source: Everbright Futures Research Institute

　　Author: Yao Tao

　　Professional Qualification: F3082336

　　Trading Consultant Qualification: Z0018553

Editor: Zhu Henan