"Bang", a huge shock at Monday's market open!

Source: Wall Street Intelligence Circle

"Bang"—the global markets opened with huge turbulence on Monday:

- Oil prices surged 10%, with US crude rising above $105 and Brent crude topping $100;

- Gold prices gapped lower, plunging over $100 at one point;

- The three major US stock index futures opened Monday more than 1% lower;

- The US dollar and US Treasury yields spiked, with the dollar regaining the 99 level and the 10-year US Treasury yield rising above 4.35%.

The market isn’t writing a “textbook,” it’s playing the world’s largest game of wagers.

Trump announced he would block the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a dangerous new standoff. According to US Central Command, the blockade will begin at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Monday.

Trump’s use of the term “Blockade” has rattled market nerves. In international law, this term is almost equivalent to a declaration of war. He had several words to choose from, but ultimately used the one that frightened the markets most:

· Embargo: economic sanctions, not yet escalating to direct action

· Quarantine: restricting certain materials (a vague approach, avoids the definition of war)

· Blockade: about to use force (an act of war)

“Blockade” means you use warships and force to intercept all vessels, not just enemy ships—even ships from neutral countries could be stopped. Legally, this is very close to an “act of war.” During the Cuban Missile Crisis, although the US intercepted Soviet ships at sea, they used the word “quarantine” because they didn’t want it defined as a formal act of war.

Through negotiations, Trump found his bargaining chips insufficient, so in this situation, he would prioritize an “escalate first” strategy to build leverage;

According to US officials, America has drawn clear red lines in negotiations with Iran, including: Iran must cease all uranium enrichment activities, dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities, recover highly enriched material, reopen the Strait of Hormuz fully and charge no fees, and pursue broader peace involving regional allies.

However, judging by the market’s reaction, the overall response remains restrained: US stock index futures fell 1%, gold prices dropped 2%—numbers that are manageable.

The key question for Monday is whether the market interprets this as a temporary breakdown in negotiations or a structural collapse of the ceasefire framework. This distinction will determine whether risk aversion fades rapidly or continues to spread. With the situation changing rapidly, for ordinary investors, the wisest move now may simply be to “duck down and cover,” waiting for the first wave to pass before making any moves.