Analysis: Multiple Factors Support Long-term Bull Run for Gold, Price May Reach $5,800 by Year End

According to Odaily, institutions such as ANZ and Goldman Sachs have stated that even if the Middle East war disrupts markets, gold could still rebound in the long term. Analysts from these institutions believe that resilient central bank demand, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, and diversification away from USD-denominated assets are all reasons for a bullish long-term outlook. ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes indicated that prices are expected to eventually recover, as the deteriorating macroeconomic combination of economic growth and inflation paves the way for central banks to resume interest rate cuts.

ANZ maintains its outlook, forecasting gold prices to reach USD 5,800 by year-end. The analysts wrote that central bank gold purchases are expected to remain a key pillar of support, with official purchases forecast to be around 850 tonnes in 2026. ANZ’s bullish position echoes similar forecasts made by Goldman Sachs and RBC at the beginning of March. Goldman Sachs maintains its USD 5,400 forecast, citing continuous central bank gold purchases and expectations that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points this year. Goldman Sachs analysts previously stated that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, gold still faces tactical downside risk in the short term. However, a prolonged conflict could accelerate the diversification away from traditional Western assets, providing long-term support for gold prices. (Golden Ten Data)