OCBC Bank: US-Iran ceasefire paves the way for normalization of energy supply, oil prices may fall to $70-85 in the second half of the year
- OCBC Bank strategists stated that although the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran sparked a rebound following a sharp decline in oil prices, it still paved the way for normalization of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. This aligns with the bank’s baseline forecast that Brent crude oil prices will fall back to 70-85 dollars per barrel in the second half of the year.
- If oil prices decline as expected, the US dollar may still weaken later this year, as ongoing policy uncertainty in the United States encourages de-dollarization. However, the resilience of US economic growth and the dollar’s renewed appeal as a safe haven during energy shocks will limit the extent of its depreciation.
- OCBC Bank’s preferred relief trade remains the Australian dollar—a pro-cyclical currency that is relatively resilient to energy shocks. Moreover, if geopolitical tensions ease further and boost global growth, the Australian dollar could also benefit from strengthening industrial metal prices.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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