EUR: Supported with firmer data and ceasefire – BNY

BNY's Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes Eurozone producer prices fell on energy weakness while ex‑energy pressures stayed positive, and retail sales showed modest annual growth despite monthly softness. German manufacturing orders and services turnover improved, while French trade and current account balances deteriorated. He links these data to a Euro rebound and lower core bond yields after the ceasefire.

Mixed data as Euro firms post ceasefire

"Eurozone’s February industrial producer prices fell 0.7% m/m and 3.0% y/y, while EU prices declined 0.5% m/m and 2.7% y/y, driven primarily by a sharp drop in energy prices."

"On an annual basis, energy prices declined 11.7%, while other categories recorded moderate increases, indicating underlying price pressures remain positive outside energy."

"Across member states, the largest monthly declines were seen in Spain, Ireland and Portugal, while Bulgaria, Finland and Sweden recorded the strongest annual increases, highlighting continued divergence in producer price dynamics across the region."

"Eurozone’s February retail sales volumes declined 0.2% m/m, with the EU down 0.3%, reflecting weaker food sales and broadly flat or slightly negative non-food performance, partly offset by gains in fuel sales."

"Germany’s February manufacturing orders rose 0.9% m/m, with stronger underlying momentum as orders excluding large contracts increased 3.5%, driven primarily by gains in the automotive sector (+3.8%) alongside sharp growth in textiles (+45.2%) and metals (+3.7%), partially offset by a steep decline in other transport equipment (-25.9%)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)