Panson Macro: Despite the decline in oil prices, there remains a risk of significant inflation shocks in the future

Golden Ten Data reported on April 8 that economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics stated that although oil prices fell after a two-week ceasefire agreement, the upcoming inflation shock will still be significant. They said: "The ceasefire agreement has eliminated the prospect of an interest rate hike in April, which we have always viewed as an unlikely scenario, but we still maintain the view that the European Central Bank will modestly tighten policy in the summer." Although the market has welcomed the ceasefire, Iran may still restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. They added: "Tehran has learned from this crisis that it can exert enormous pressure on the United States by controlling the Strait, and we see no reason for Iran not to take advantage of this now."