Bernstein sees over 100% upside for Figure as monthly loan volume tops $1 billion for first time

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein reiterated a $67 price target on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR), after trimming it from $72 in late March, while reaffirming an outperform rating following the company's preliminary first-quarter results showing record loan origination volumes.

Shares in Figure closed at $32.30 on April 6, with Bernstein’s price target implying about 107% upside from that level. The analysts value the company at 25 times estimated 2027 EBITDA.

In a note to clients on Monday, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani noted that March 2026 was the first month in which Figure crossed $1 billion in loan volumes, a milestone they attributed to the success of the company's tokenized credit marketplace.

Record monthly lending activity

Figure reported about $1.2 billion in consumer loan volume for March, representing a 33% month-over-month increase. First-quarter volume totaled $2.9 billion, representing 7% sequential growth and a 113% year-over-year gain, per the note. 

The analysts noted that the first quarter is historically a weak period for home equity line of credit (HELOC) loans. Figure's growth during the period, they said, demonstrated the strength of its partner network, which includes more than 300 active partners, and the success of newer loan categories.

Figure is tracking approximately $12 billion in annualized loan volumes, according to the note. This implies a 39% year-over-year growth over calendar year 2025, although the company did not disclose a breakdown of loan volumes by product in its monthly update.

Bernstein estimated that first-lien loans, which carry a lower take rate than standard HELOCs, continued to grow. In the fourth quarter of 2025, first-lien loans represented a 19% share of volumes, according to the note.

For 2026, Bernstein expects Figure to originate $12.8 billion in loan volumes, representing 53% year-over-year growth. New loan categories are projected to contribute $1.7 billion, or 13% of total volumes, compared with approximately 4% in the fourth quarter of 2025.

At the same time, the research and brokerage firm expects the Connect marketplace to become the dominant model for Figure, contributing 56% of total volumes by the end of calendar year 2026, up from 46% in calendar year 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Connect volume reached 54% of its Consumer Loan Marketplace volume, up from 46% in the prior quarter, according to Figure’s recent earnings report.

Financial outlook and risks

Bernstein projected Figure’s reported earnings per share to reach $0.98 in 2026 and $1.52 in 2027, compared to $0.54 in 2025. 

However, the analysts identified several macro risks, including a potential decline in interest rates that could increase competition in the mortgage refinancing market and reduce demand for HELOCs. 

They also noted that any delay in the expansion into non-HELOC loan categories could impact the projected 20% volume contribution from those sectors by 2027.

Bernstein and its affiliates have had recent investment banking and other business relationships with Figure and expect to seek additional compensation. Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.