Morgan Stanley: Middle East conflict disrupts aluminum supply, impact may last through 2026

Golden Ten Data reported on April 7 that Morgan Stanley analysts stated that aluminum supply losses caused by the Middle East conflict may persist until 2026. The bank noted that restarting the affected operations (which account for about 4% of global supply) could take up to 12 months. Therefore, Morgan Stanley analysts believe that “aluminum prices face upside risks in 2026.” The bank pointed out that as the physical metals market tightens, regional premiums in Japan, Europe, and the United States are rising relative to London benchmark prices. Of course, Morgan Stanley added that a slowdown in global economic growth could weaken demand and thus limit the increase in aluminum prices.