Analysis: 84% of traders on Polymarket are in a loss position

According to ChainCatcher, citing The Defiant, independent on-chain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov’s latest research found that 84.1% of traders on Polymarket are in a loss-making position.

The report analyzed 2.5 million wallet addresses. Sergeenkov found that over the past year, only 2% of traders on the platform accumulated profits of more than $1,000, while only 0.033% (that is, 840 addresses) made profits of $100,000 on Polymarket.

“Most traders just come to trade for a period of time and then leave,” the report concluded. The study found that the probability of earning $5,000 per month declines each month. Among the 6,600 traders who averaged more than $5,000 profit per month, only 2.6% remained consistently active for more than one year.