BTC Market Pulse: Week 15

Overview

The recent breakout follows a period of compression and signals a renewed attempt to challenge overhead resistance.

Spot markets reflect early signs of demand returning, with RSI rebounding strongly and Spot CVD flipping firmly positive, indicating renewed buyer aggression. However, declining exchange volume suggests participation remains relatively light, pointing to a recovery that is constructive but not yet fully confirmed.

In derivatives, positioning has reset modestly, with open interest easing and long-side funding cooling, signalling reduced leverage and a more balanced market backdrop. At the same time, a sharp reversal in perpetual CVD highlights renewed directional conviction from futures traders.

Options markets are shifting toward a more defensive posture, with options open interest contracting as traders turn more selective. Meanwhile, implied volatility has moved back above realised volatility and 25-delta skew has risen toward the top of its recent range, pointing to firmer demand for downside protection despite the price recovery.

ETF flows show stabilisation, with net outflows narrowing sharply and suggesting that institutional selling pressure is easing. However, trading volumes have declined notably, while ETF holder profitability has improved, indicating a more measured pace of engagement as unrealised gains begin to rebuild.

On-chain conditions remain subdued but are starting to stabilise, with active addresses improving modestly and loss-driven spending beginning to ease. Still, transfer volume, fees, and realised cap growth all point to a market where capital remains cautious, while the supply structure continues to be anchored by longer-term holders.

In sum, the rebound appears constructive, with improving momentum, stabilising spot demand, and a visible reduction in loss-driven behaviour across the market. Even so, participation remains soft across exchange, ETF, and on-chain activity, suggesting conviction has not yet fully returned. For this move to prove more durable, stronger follow-through in volume, capital inflows, and network activity will likely be needed.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators

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