Institution: The US labor market remains fragile, with a 40% probability of falling into recession

According to Golden Ten Data on April 3, EY-Parthenon Senior Economist Lydia Boussour stated that although the US labor market saw a strong rebound in March, it remains fragile. She believes that against a backdrop of growing policy uncertainty, companies have become more cautious, hiring intentions are cooling, and businesses are increasingly inclined to protect profit margins by boosting productivity rather than expanding their workforce. “Looking ahead, we expect the labor market in 2026 to remain essentially frozen, characterized by selective hiring, restricted wage growth, and strategic personnel adjustments as labor supply remains historically tight.” Boussour expects job growth to fall slightly below breakeven levels, with the unemployment rate gradually rising to around 4.7%. “Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, downside risks predominate, and the probability of a recession stands at 40%,” she added.