The impact of oil shortages will be gradual but persistent worldwide, with Asia bearing the brunt, and jet fuel prices doubling.

汇通财经2026/04/03 12:04

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Institutional opinions point out that the Strait of Hormuz typically carries 20% of the world’s oil supply. If disrupted, the resulting shortage effect would seep gradually but persistently across the globe, much like an oil spill. Data from the International Energy Agency shows that about 80% of the oil passing through the strait is shipped to Asia, and around 95% of Japan’s oil imports come from the Middle East.
The pain radiates outward from Asia. Data from the American Automobile Association shows the U.S. retail price for diesel is $5.49 per gallon, a 46% rise from a month ago, but still pales in comparison to Singapore, where prices exceed $15 per gallon. U.S. coastal producers have increased exports, driving up local prices as well.
Jet fuel has taken a heavy hit. Last year, the Middle East exported over $10 billion worth of jet kerosene, but now most shipments can’t be sent out, resulting in severe shortages in major import regions like Europe. Prices have doubled, rising faster than Brent crude. Based on International Energy Agency data and current prices, airlines without hedging will see their fuel costs rise by 25%.
Middle Eastern crude is typically denser, contains more impurities, and is lower priced. Many Asian refineries are equipped to process such crude, but now have to pay higher prices for lighter, low-sulphur oil, potentially reducing output. U.S. truck drivers will feel more pressure than average drivers. Whether in transportation, manufacturing, or agriculture, major users of oil and its derivatives will feel the impact, only varying in degree and timing.

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The impact of oil shortages will be gradual but persistent worldwide, with Asia bearing the brunt, and jet fuel prices doubling.

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