Analysis: BTC has officially entered the latter half of the bear market, and even with a final drop, it is unlikely to break below 45,500 USD

BlockBeats news, on April 3, analyst Murphy stated that an observed crossover has occurred between the average on-chain turnover cost (yellow line) of BTC held for 1-2 years and the average on-chain turnover cost (orange line) of BTC held for 1-3 months. This signal can be confirmed with nearly 100% certainty on the on-chain data level and indicates that BTC has officially entered the second half of the bear market.

In addition, Murphy noted that the well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo’s long-term Bitcoin valuation indicator CVDD reached $45,410 at the end of last month, only slowly rising by $506 since February 10. This reflects that early whale holders have drastically reduced or nearly stopped on-chain turnover. CVDD is one of the few indicators in BTC history that has never failed—the price has always stayed above CVDD, and the bear market bottom only ever gets infinitely close to it but never falls below. Therefore, even if there is a 'final drop', BTC will not fall below about $45,500. In theory, there is currently a possible maximum drawdown of about 30%, but in reality it is likely to be much less.