When will the initial Eurozone HICP figures for March be released, and what impact might they have on EUR/USD?

Eurozone March HICP Preview

The preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the Eurozone, covering March, will be released today at 09:00 GMT.

Early projections suggest Eurostat will report headline HICP inflation rising to 2.7% year-over-year, up from 1.9% in February. This uptick in inflation is largely attributed to soaring oil prices, which have been driven by ongoing conflict in the Middle East, fueling expectations for higher prices across the region.

The core HICP, which omits volatile items such as food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, is anticipated to remain unchanged at 2.4% year-over-year.

Evidence of mounting inflation could lead market participants to anticipate a more aggressive stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) in upcoming policy meetings.

During the ECB and its Watchers conference at Goethe University in Frankfurt last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde remarked, “The need for action increases as deviations from our inflation target become larger and more persistent.” She further noted that if inflation overshoots the target significantly but not for an extended period, a moderate policy adjustment may be appropriate.

Elsewhere, tensions in the Middle East have lessened following statements from US President Donald Trump expressing willingness to resolve the conflict in Iran, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. Despite this, oil prices are expected to stay elevated, since the Strait of Hormuz—through which nearly one-fifth of global energy supply passes—remains closed, even as Trump pursues peace.

Potential Impact of Eurozone HICP Data on EUR/USD

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading slightly higher near 1.1468. The short-term outlook remains bearish, with the pair continuing to form lower highs and lows below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently around 1.1570. The inability to sustain moves above the 20-day EMA highlights ongoing selling pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping below 40.00 signals weakening momentum. As long as prices stay under the 20-day EMA, any upward moves are likely to be corrective within a broader downtrend.

• Resistance is first seen at the 20-day EMA near 1.1570, followed by the March 23 peak around 1.1640. A daily close above this level could soften the bearish outlook and pave the way toward 1.1690.
• Immediate support is located at 1.1460, just below current levels. A break lower would target 1.1415, and further losses could push the pair toward the 1.1350 zone.

(Technical analysis for this article was assisted by an AI tool.)