Everbright Futures 0331 Gold Commentary: TACO Trading Remains Volatile, Gold Price Cautiously Bottoming Out
On March 30, COMEX gold rose first and then fell, closing at $4,540.4/oz, an increase of 1.07%. The domestic SHFE gold night session opened high and moved lower, dipping below the previous day's closing price and finishing at 1,011.48 RMB/g, an increase of 0.60%.
On Monday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Federal Reserve’s interest rates are in a "favorable position" and can ignore oil price shocks related to Iran, but warned to stay alert for changes in inflation expectations. Powell’s speech eased market concerns that the Fed might be forced to tighten monetary policy to curb accelerating inflation, leading traders to shift toward betting on a slim chance of a rate cut this year. As traders abandoned bets on Fed rate hikes, the U.S. bond market rebounded from the worst sell-off in 17 months, and gold prices saw a modest intra-day uptick.
However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are intensifying. The Iranian attack on the Kuwaiti oil tanker raised concerns over energy supplies, while statements by U.S. President Trump further heightened worries about worsening tensions. Trump warned that if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. would destroy Iran’s electricity, oil, and desalination infrastructure. Amid fears of escalating conflict, tightening liquidity has somewhat limited the rise in gold prices. Recently, financial markets have displayed a somewhat contradictory mentality: on one hand, the U.S. government’s consecutive TACO actions have led to fatigue in pricing the U.S.-Iran conflict, while on the other hand, there are concerns about a sudden escalation. For gold, prices may still go through repeated bottoming and consolidation in the short term, and caution is advised.
Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute
Author: Shiyueming
Professional Qualification: F03097365
Trading Consulting Qualification: Z0017563
Editor: Zhu Henan
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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