CFTC to 'defer to leagues' as NFL calls for tighter prediction market guardrails

The National Football League has asked prediction market giants Kalshi and Polymarket to pull back on a range of contract offerings as U.S. regulators say they will give weight to the league's concerns over market integrity.

On Sunday, the NFL sent letters to prediction market platforms asking them to "refrain from offering trades on events that can be easily manipulated or determined in advance," according to an ESPN report.

According to sports betting correspondent David Purdum, the league flagged markets tied to single-play events, such as whether a quarterback’s first pass is incomplete or if a kicker misses a field goal, alongside contracts linked to draft picks, roster decisions, and broadcast mentions or celebrity attendance.

It also raised objections to markets tied to penalties and player injuries, saying they could create incentives for manipulation.

In an accompanying interview, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig told Purdum that the agency will "afford a lot of deference to the leagues" when assessing which contracts are vulnerable to manipulation.

"If a league is telling us that a contract is going to be readily susceptible to manipulation, we’ll evaluate the risks there," Selig said. "But the leagues are very well positioned to make those calls."

The NFL has not publicly released the full contents of its letter, and it is unclear whether platforms plan to adjust their offerings in response. The Block reached out to Polymarket, Kalshi, and the NFL for comment.

Road to prediction market regulation

Lawmakers are already in the process of addressing these issues by introducing a bipartisan bill that would bar federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports-related contracts.

Meanwhile, several states are going a step further by challenging the legality of these platforms in court.

Other major sports leagues are opting for a collaborative approach. Major League Baseball struck a partnership with Polymarket earlier this month and signed an agreement with the CFTC to share information and internally monitor risks.