‘Short-term outlook remains negative’ for gold values, silver miners as 2025 approaches – Heraeus

Central Banks Shift Gold Market Dynamics

According to Heraeus precious metals analysts, central banks moving from accumulating to offloading gold has lessened support for gold prices, with current trends pointing toward further declines. Meanwhile, major silver producers are reporting higher output compared to last year.

In their recent analysis, Heraeus experts highlighted that gold sales by central banks have removed a significant source of demand for the metal.

They noted, “Reports indicate that the Turkish central bank has cut its gold reserves by about 53 tonnes, now holding 772 tonnes. This reduction comes from selling 22 tonnes and engaging in 31 tonnes of gold-backed currency swaps. While this is just one example and other central banks may still be increasing their holdings, it illustrates how reserves are used during periods of financial or economic uncertainty, with gold serving as a reliable, liquid asset.”

Last year, central banks collectively increased their gold reserves by 863 tonnes. The analysts cautioned that if ongoing market instability leads central banks to slow their purchases or even sell gold, it could significantly affect overall demand.

Market Volatility Driven by Geopolitical Events

Heraeus also pointed out that recent statements from President Trump regarding Iran have fueled volatility in precious metals. Early last Monday, gold prices dropped sharply to $4,099 per ounce before recovering to $4,400—matching lows seen in early February. Over the weekend, President Trump had threatened military action against Iran’s power infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within 48 hours, but later postponed any strikes.

While immediate price movements are being shaped by U.S. foreign policy news, Heraeus analysts believe the short-term outlook for gold remains negative as the market consolidates after its dramatic surge to record highs in January.

Gold surged to an intraday peak of $4,580 per ounce just before 8 a.m. Eastern, and continued to test that level as North American markets opened on Monday.

At last check, spot gold was trading at $4,568.57 per ounce, up 1.66% for the session.

Silver Production and Market Performance

Turning to silver, Heraeus analysts reported that KGHM Group’s silver output has increased during the first two months of 2026.

KGHM, primarily a copper producer, also generates substantial silver as a secondary product. In 2025, the company produced 1,323 tonnes (42.5 million ounces) of silver from its operations in Poland, North America, and Chile. Last February, output was reduced due to maintenance at processing plants, but this year, production for January and February reached 252.3 tonnes (8.1 million ounces).

Coeur Mining has revised its production forecasts following the acquisition of New Gold. The new assets include two gold mines that also yield silver and copper as by-products. Coeur now anticipates producing between 18.68 million and 21.93 million ounces of silver in 2026, up from 17.9 million ounces in 2025. Of this, 480,000 to 630,000 ounces are expected from the newly acquired mines, suggesting room for further growth at existing sites.

Silver prices are also performing strongly, reaching a session high of 71.763 shortly after 9 a.m. Eastern and remaining near the top of the day’s range. Analysts cautioned that while prices have rebounded above $70 per ounce, a drop below the $64 support level could see silver fall to $55 per ounce.