'Serious talks with new regime': Bitcoin gains on Trump's Iran comments as analysts warn of geopolitical risk and ETF outflows

Bitcoin (BTC) opened the week pinned near the lower end of a recent range as traders weighed geopolitical risk, negative exchange-traded fund flows, and a heavy slate of U.S. data that analysts surmise could impact near-term direction.

According to The Block’s prices page, BTC began Monday around $66,000 after briefly dipping toward $64,000 during thin weekend trading. The dip extended a pattern of late-week weakness followed by tentative rebounds.

Markets, however, found some footing during intraday hours after comments on Truth Social from President Donald Trump, who said the U.S. was in "serious discussions" with what he described as a new Iranian regime.

Trump also said that a deal would "probably" be reached, while also warning of escalation if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. The remarks lifted risk sentiment modestly, with bitcoin rising nearly 2% to change hands near $68,000 and ether (ETH) trading over $2,050 after gaining close to 4%.

Risks linger

QCP Capital said in a Monday note that bitcoin has continued to hold a $65,000 to $70,000 band despite persistent macro pressure, with price action "drifting lower into weekends as positioning is pared" before stabilizing at the start of the week.

Still, the firm warned that upside momentum may remain limited after last week’s post-options expiry sell-off, particularly with the conflict in Iran unresolved and markets approaching an April 6 deadline tied to a U.S. pause on strikes.

"The pattern has persisted through the month," QCP wrote, adding that sentiment remains fragile even as bitcoin has outperformed gold and equities since the conflict began.

Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, described the current setup as finely balanced, with bitcoin "entering the new week on a knife-edge" as macro forces collide.

Meanwhile, institutional capital recently retreated for the first time in four weeks.

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $296 million in net outflows between March 23 and 28, marking the first negative week after a month of steady inflows. Ethereum ETFs saw $206.58 million in outflows over the same period.

Per Misir’s view, that shift matters because ETF demand had been supporting the recovery narrative. "A reversal here shifts the burden back onto spot demand and short-covering," BRN’s analysts said.

In the backdrop, macro conditions continue to dominate. Oil remains elevated, the Strait of Hormuz stays central to risk pricing, and upcoming U.S. data — including JOLTS, retail sales, and Friday’s jobs report — could reset expectations for rates.

"The near-term setup is fragile," Misir added. "Positioning is cleaner than sentiment, but conviction is still thin."

The tone has been echoed across trading desks, too. Analysts at Laser Digital said markets are still reactive to headline swings from the Middle East. As such, rallies are likely to fade as negotiations stall and risk appetite stays muted.

Laser Digital analysts also pointed to additional pressure from negative ETF flows and rising energy costs, warning that higher electricity prices could force miners to sell more bitcoin, adding to supply.

"Unless there is a clear picture of an off-ramp… it will be hard to find any meaningful movement," the desk wrote.

At the same time, some underlying demand signals have held. Martin Gaspar, senior crypto market strategist at FalconX, noted that spot ETF flows earlier in March had totaled roughly $1.5 billion, suggesting longer-term capital is still entering the market.

He added that recent price stability relative to equities and metals could reflect seller exhaustion, with fewer forced sellers after earlier drawdowns.

Even so, the broader shift in positioning is clear, per multiple analysts.

Investors are not chasing crypto higher. They are stepping back, watching macro signals and leaning into yield as uncertainty around inflation, rates, and geopolitics persists.