Gold: Risk‑asset behaviour complicates case – HSBC

HSBC Asset Management notes that Gold has sold off sharply despite heightened geopolitical tensions and a stronger Dollar, behaving more like a risk asset in 2026. The report attributes this to shifting ownership towards retail and leveraged players, but still sees a decent long‑term investment case, especially with global de‑dollarisation, within a broad, diversified portfolio approach.

Safe‑haven appeal under scrutiny

"Moves in the gold price since the Iran conflict broke out have defied expectations. "

"The conventional playbook assumed that mounting geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty would naturally boost the yellow metal, mirroring last year’s “Liberation Day” episode and sustaining a spectacular two-year rally. Instead, reality has proved quite different, with gold registering a 15% month-to-date drawdown."

"A stronger US dollar has certainly been a headwind, deterring non-US buyers, while a hawkish repricing of interest rates has increased the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Yet, gold withstood a similar surge in the greenback and rates throughout 2022, weakening this traditional thesis."

"Rather, gold is behaving like a risk asset in 2026. Ownership has shifted towards retail and other leveraged buyers, many of whom are forced to liquidate holdings in periods of market stress."

"There remains a decent long-term investment case for gold, particularly amid ongoing global de-dollarisation. However, the recent volatility offers a stark reminder: robust portfolio diversification demands a broad-based approach."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)