Economics expert Wan Zhe: Judging from the current Middle East situation, the scale of the supply shock may exceed that of previous episodes.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 29 that Wang Zhe, economics professor at Beijing Normal University, stated that historically, the duration and magnitude of oil price increases triggered by Middle East conflicts still depend on the evolution of the geopolitical situation. According to the current situation, the scale of the supply shock may exceed previous levels. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could result in a supply gap accounting for 15% to 20% of global supply. Moreover, geopolitical uncertainty is higher, the risk of conflict spilling over continues to escalate, and there is even a risk of turning into a full-scale conflict across the Middle East. The market’s panic sentiment is stronger than during local wars in history. Regarding future oil prices, if the conflict maintains its current intensity, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the Houthi armed group continues harassment but does not completely block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and there is no major diplomatic breakthrough, oil prices are likely to stay above $100. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is blocked, both core routes are interrupted at the same time, and the conflict spreads to more countries, then prices will certainly continue to rise. If there is a major diplomatic breakthrough and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, oil prices could quickly fall below $100.