Ethereum may see 25% rally as richest ETH whales return to ‘profitable state’

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), may rise by around 25% in the coming months as its richest whale group becomes profitable for the first time since early February.

Key takeaways:

• ETH gained 25% in three months and 50% in six months on average after top whales returned to profit in past cycles.

• Ether could rally above $2,750 by June if the on-chain whale metric signal plays out.

Whale metric signals ETH is bottoming already

The unrealized profit ratio of wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH has flipped back above zero, according to data resource CryptoQuant. In other words, this whale cohort is no longer sitting on aggregate paper losses.

In the past, similar transitions to a “profitable state marked the starting point of an uptrend,” said on-chain analyst CW.

ETH delivered nearly 25% returns on average three months after the whale ratio flipped to positive. Similarly, its price gained roughly 50% after six months and 300% after a year into the signal.

The price behavior suggests that once top ETH whales return to aggregate profit, they face less pressure to sell defensively. At the same time, the shift can strengthen broader market confidence by signaling renewed conviction among the richest ETH holders.

ETH may head toward the $2,750 area by June and to over $3,200 by September if the historical post-signal pattern holds.

Related: Early Ethereum whale rebuilds stack with $19.5M in ETH buys

Still, the whale ratio metric is not flawless. In 2018, for instance, ETH dropped 17.5% in the month after a similar flip and eventually tumbled nearly 70%.

Onchain data caps Ether’s upside at $2,640

Another on-chain signal is reinforcing Ethereum’s recovery case.

Glassnode data shows ETH rebounding from its lowest MVRV deviation band (blue), a setup similar to Q2 2022 and Q2 2025, when price recovered from undervalued levels and climbed back above realized price.

At current rates, ETH remains below its realized price (purple) at $2,353, which remains the first key recovery level. A break above that threshold could open the door toward the -0.5 sigma band (teal) near $2,640.

On the downside, failure to reclaim realized price could keep ETH exposed to a retest of the lowest deviation band near $1,651.

Ethereum’s technicals reiterate rally above $2,600

From a technical perspective, ETH has broken above its ascending triangle pattern and is now pulling back toward the former resistance trendline.

Such retests are common after breakouts, as markets often revisit the breakout level to confirm it has flipped into new support.

Ether could resume its recovery toward the triangle’s measured upside target at around $2,625 or higher if the upper trendline holds as support.

That level also sits within the broader on-chain recovery range outlined by Glassnode’s MVRV bands, adding confluence to the bullish setup.

A failed retest, on the other hand, would weaken the breakout structure and risk sending ETH back toward the lower support zone near $1,950-$2,000.