AUD/USD Outlook: Recovers from lowest point in two months to reclaim 0.6900, but downward pressure persists

AUD/USD Attempts to Rebound Amid Softer US Dollar

The AUD/USD currency pair is making a slight comeback after dipping to its lowest level in over two months near 0.6870 during Friday’s Asian trading hours. This recovery comes as the US Dollar weakens, allowing spot prices to climb back above the 0.6900 threshold. However, the short-term outlook still favors sellers, suggesting traders should remain cautious before anticipating further upward movement.

The US Dollar’s decline follows President Donald Trump’s announcement to postpone military action against Iran’s energy sector and extend the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to April 6. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish tone is providing some support to the Australian Dollar. Nevertheless, expectations that the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this year—driven by concerns over persistent inflation from high energy costs—could limit further losses for the US Dollar and keep gains in the AUD/USD pair in check.

Technical Overview

From a charting perspective, the pair’s recent fall below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November 2025 to March 2026 rally, as well as the lower edge of its short-term range, points to a bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below its signal line in negative territory, highlighting weakening upward momentum. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 40, indicating growing but not yet extreme selling pressure.

Despite these bearish signals, the AUD/USD is still trading above its rising 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which helps cushion the downside but does not fully rule out further declines.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Support: Immediate support is found just above the 100-day SMA near 0.6820. A clear break below this level could pave the way for a drop toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.6717.
• Resistance: On the upside, the 23.6% retracement at 0.7005 serves as the first hurdle for buyers. A daily close above 0.7005 would help ease the current bearish outlook and potentially open the door to the 0.7080–0.7120 range.
• If the pair fails to hold above 0.6820, the likelihood of a deeper correction toward 0.6720 increases.

This technical analysis incorporates insights generated with the assistance of AI tools.

AUD/USD Daily Chart