Fertilizer supply disruption: Goldman Sachs expects record inflows into US agricultural ETFs

Glonghui, March 26 — The shockwaves from the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz are spreading from the energy market to the global food supply chain. The combined pressures of fertilizer raw material shortages, shipping disruptions, and Russian export restrictions are subjecting agricultural commodities to a new round of supply shocks. Goldman Sachs predicts that inflows into agricultural ETFs will reach a historical record this month. According to Goldman Sachs analyst Schneider, March 2026 is expected to be the strongest month for agricultural ETF inflows, surpassing the record set in March 2022 during the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At the same time, in a report released this week, Goldman Sachs commodities analysts Thomas and Struyven warned that transit risks in the Strait of Hormuz could have a substantial impact on global agricultural prices, and that interruptions in fertilizer supply could push food prices higher by reducing grain output. Former Russian central bank advisor Prokopenko believes that the impact on food prices could become evident in global markets within six to nine months. Bloomberg macro strategist White also highlighted that shocks to energy and fertilizer supply pose hidden risks for a “second-round inflation effect.”