Bernstein sees Bitcoin hitting $150K despite war

Bitcoin could more than double to $150,000 by year end despite geopolitical turmoil from the US and Israel’s war with Iran, according to Bernstein analysts.

The brokerage said Bitcoin’s resilience versus traditional assets and strong accumulation from long-term holders underpin its conviction that the cryptocurrency has already bottomed and is trending higher.

“We believe Bitcoin has found its trough and is now heading higher,”

Bernstein analysts said, adding:

“We retain $150,000 as our 2026 year-end expected price for Bitcoin.”

The bullish call comes as oil prices have surged roughly 30% since the conflict began, while gold has fallen more than 17% and US equities have declined, even as Bitcoin has gained about 8% over the same period.

Bernstein pointed to continued buying from Michael Saylor’s Strategy, $2.2 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows over the past four weeks, and the fact that around 60% of supply has remained inactive for over a year as key supporting factors.

“Bitcoin holders inactive for more than one year stand at 60% of total supply,”

The analysts said, noting this reflects a base of long-term investors treating the asset as a store of value.

The firm has previously issued aggressive Bitcoin forecasts, including a $200,000 target that was later revised, while prediction market data shows only a 10% chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year and a 25% probability of a drop to $30,000.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $70,388.79.