Market Analysis: UK Inflation May Peak at 4.6% This Year

According to Golden Ten Data on March 25, Capital Economics analyst Ruth Gregory pointed out that the UK inflation rate may reach a peak of around 4.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026. In February this year, the annual inflation rate in the UK remained at 3.0%, far higher than the 1.9% level in the Eurozone. Due to the energy shock caused by conflict in the Middle East, rising gasoline and diesel prices may push inflation higher in the coming months. “This does not include the indirect increase caused by companies passing part of the energy cost onto the prices of non-energy goods,” Gregory stated. However, given that rising energy prices are expected to impact economic growth and the labor market, she believes that at this stage, the possibility of extending the rate freeze is greater than that of a rate hike.